Article originally published in the newspaper State of São Paulo.

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With most business groups, such as XP Inc, Coca-Cola, Google and Nubank, choosing to remain in the home office until the end of 2020, we see a herd movement in the corporate sector in this same direction.

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Even if other companies want to see their teams back in the office, it will be difficult to convince professionals in the face of the stance adopted by market leaders.

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It would be a high bet, with risks to health and brand reputation.

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Therefore, it is already possible to foresee an emptying of corporate regions, such as Itaim Bibi, Vila Olímpia and Brooklin, especially in their more commercial areas.

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As a consequence, the commerce and service networks that were set up to serve the professionals surrounding the offices will be severely affected.

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It is not feasible to imagine that these trade and service networks can be sustained until the beginning of 2021, and it is more likely that there will be an extensive demobilization of restaurants, pharmacies, cafés, bars, markets and stores aimed at this audience.

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Once these closures take place, such regions will be even less attractive for the return of professionals, prolonging the state of crisis.

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Far beyond the restrictions experienced in other regions of São Paulo, which in themselves are very serious, we see some iconic spots in the city at high risk of degradation.

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On the other hand, professionals who stop going to the offices and start working from their homes begin to favor the commercial and service networks in their neighborhoods.

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But who are the professionals qualified to work from home and where do they live?

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The professional profile that can fully carry out their work from home was described by Richard Florida in 2002 in the book, The Rise of the Creative Class. Porto Alegre: L&PM, 2011.

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This new social class, still discreet in Brazil, emerges at this time of crisis as the one that most preserves its employability and consumer power.

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Composed of professionals from different fields of expertise, the creative class is marked by its ability to deal with complex issues that depend on a high level of knowledge, such as scientists, architects, designers, engineers, programmers, lawyers, managers, and financial analysts.

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This new class is present in the city of São Paulo, especially in the districts surrounding the corporate centers, such as Morumbi, Moema, Campo Belo, Vila Mariana, Alto de Pinheiros, Perdizes, Vila Leopoldina. And it should feel much less the impacts of the pandemic than workers connected to essential services.

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In addition to the economic factor, the new coronavirus crisis is causing several changes, including transformations in the functions performed by city spaces, with winners and losers.

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