New study reveals the best cities to have children
After a comprehensive analysis conducted by Mapfry, the unprecedented ranking of the best Brazilian cities for raising children was released.
This extensive study offers valuable insights for a society experiencing the consequences of Intense drop in the birth rate.
Razon de ser
Also at the end of December 2022, the IBGE released the preview of the Population of the Municipalities based on the data from the 2022 Demographic Census collected up to 25/12/2022.
On the day the Census was first released, Brazil, which believed it had 218 million inhabitants, woke up with “only” 203 million.
The main change was not the size of the population, but the slowdown in the birth rate, especially considering the proportion of women of childbearing age.
In order to understand the logic behind this change, we decided to look at “fertility islands”, places where families feel more confident to have children.
Key Findings
The study analyzed hundreds of variables regarding the Brazilian population, many of them from the new Census.
Development indicators, child population volume, and economic activity stood out as the most representative.
Cities like Nova Lima, Bady Bassitt and Santana de Parnaíba lead the ranking, providing exceptional environments for families with children
Aspects such as population growth combined with social development emerged when evaluating not only the volume of births, but also the living conditions offered by the best cities.
Methodology
Using a sophisticated classification system called Principal Component Analysis, which isolated the most important indicators among hundreds of variables.
The study evaluated cities based on five dimensions:
- Low development: identifies poor regions, where public services are absent, and school performance is low.
- Volume of children: the population of children in each city.
- Development: reflects the quality of urban infrastructure, as well as good education and health indicators.
- Dynamism: reflects the intensity of economic activity.
- High development: high coverage of public services and housing quality.
Weighting and Calculation of Final Scores
Each indicator is given a weight based on its perceived importance.
The final scores are the result of an equation that multiplies the score of each city in each category by its respective weight.
Economic Status Assessment (%ABC)
Even though it was not part of the ranking, the proportion of households in classes A, B and C, in practice, with income starting at 3 minimum wages, was included to better understand local realities.
Urban segmentation
In the same way as the Economic Status, the classification of municipalities by size and attractiveness criteria was not part of the model, but it illustrates the most representative profiles.
- Metropolises
- Group of the largest Brazilian cities
- Reference Cities
- Prosperous cities with well-developed economic sectors, serving as a destination for work, commerce and services for smaller surrounding cities
- Regional Centers
- Well-developed cities in their States, with a population in the 300,000-strong range
- Medium Cities
- Relevant cities in their regions, without being highly attractive beyond their immediate surroundings
- Interior Cities
- Self-oriented cities with populations between 60 and 90 thousand inhabitants dedicated to sectors such as industry and agriculture
- Smaller Cities
- Cities heavily dependent on social programs, pensions, and informality, many of them with an average income close to a minimum wage
- Small Cities
- Cities with restricted economies, the vast majority rely on federal transfers and income transfer programs
Technical responsibility
The work was supervised by Maurilio Soares, Data Scientist and co-founder of Mapfry.
With a degree in Statistics and a master's degree in Demography, both from UNICAMP, she has experience carrying out Market Intelligence, geomarketing and Analytical CRM studies in the retail market, financial sector and consulting.
Key insights
Significant Correlation with Economic Status
The study identified that the relationship between the economic status of families and final scores is strong, but not determinative.
Still, cities with a higher percentage of families in the higher income classes were considered better for raising children.
Diverse Urban Environments
The fact that metropolises score well can be attributed to their variety of resources, such as better quality schools, better health facilities, and more professional opportunities.
The lower average score in Small Cities and Smaller Cities reflects limitations in terms of resources and perspectives.
The main highlight is the medium-sized cities close to metropolitan regions, such as Nova Lima, which is close to Belo Horizonte, Bady Bassitt, which is a neighbor of the prosperous São José do Rio Preto, and Santana de Parnaíba, which is part of Greater São Paulo.
This orbital behavior had already been signaled in”The awakening of the dormitory cities”, an article from 2022, about the tendency of families to move to smaller cities, not so far from the economic centers of reference.
Finally, it is worth noting the presence of Goiânia in 6th place, an example of capital that integrates economic intensity and quality of life, but which lags behind Abadia de Goiás, in 4th place, which reinforces the balance profile between cities in the interior with proximity to large centers.
Discover the full Ranking
References
In 2022, the number of births fell for the fourth year and reached its lowest level since 1977
THE UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN U.S. FERTILITY RATES IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC
How Employers Can Accommodate A Surprising Baby Boom
Babies wanted: the Italian incentive package for couples
Japan demographic woes deepen as birth rate hits record low
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